Hedge Funds
Expected value judgment, bet sizing, and the trading intuition long/short and macro funds test for.
Take it, or pass?
Expected Value Challenge
You're offered a bet with a win amount, a loss amount, and a probability. Decide fast whether the expected value says take it.
How much of your bankroll?
PremierKelly Criterion
Given an edge and the payout odds, compute the Kelly-optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet.
Which bet actually pays more?
PremierOptimization Challenge
Two bets, one choice. Compute the expected value of each and pick the one that actually maximizes it.
Quote a bid and ask. Wear the risk.
PremierMarket Making
Post a bid/ask spread against a hidden fair value. Counterparties trade against you — a tight, well-centered quote wins; a wide or mispriced one loses.
Buy here, sell there, mark it now.
PremierTrading P&L Sprint
Track a rapid sequence of buys and sells at an average cost basis, then compute realized, unrealized, or total P&L before time runs out.
Fair coin, or biased?
PremierBayesian Updating
Start at a 50/50 prior, observe a sequence of flips, and update to the correct posterior probability.
Some games on this track need Premier. See pricing →