Quant Research
Bayesian reasoning, conditional probability, and the statistical intuition quant research interviews probe hardest.
Fair coin, or biased?
PremierBayesian Updating
Start at a 50/50 prior, observe a sequence of flips, and update to the correct posterior probability.
Monty Hall and friends.
PremierConditional Probability
The probability questions people actually get wrong: conditional probability, Bayes, cards without replacement, Monty Hall.
How much of your bankroll?
PremierKelly Criterion
Given an edge and the payout odds, compute the Kelly-optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet.
Correlation isn't causation.
PremierData Intuition
Short scenarios testing statistical intuition: confounders, sample size, R², and the causation trap.
Which bet actually pays more?
PremierOptimization Challenge
Two bets, one choice. Compute the expected value of each and pick the one that actually maximizes it.
What comes next?
Sequence Recognition
Arithmetic, geometric, square, and Fibonacci-style sequences. Spot the rule and enter the next number before the streak breaks.
Is it worth paying to know?
PremierInformation Value
A bet, and a price to learn the outcome in advance. Decide whether the information is worth more than it costs.
Some games on this track need Premier. See pricing →